An Analysis of Inbound Tourism Demand for KoreaUsing a Dynamic Panel Data Model

CIN BEOM CHEOL

Journal of Tourism Sciences

Abbr : JTS
2013, 37(1), pp.103-122
Publisher : The Tourism Sciences Society Of Korea
Research Area : Tourism

CIN BEOM CHEOL ¹

¹경기대학교

ABSTRACT

This paper empirically investigates determinants of inbound tourism demand for Korea using a dynamic panel data model. The empirical analysis uses the panel data set for the 34 countries over the period 1995-2009, estimating the dynamic panel model by the Generalized Method of Moment to control for the endogeneity of the lagged dependent variable. The endogeneity bias could be caused by the OLS estimation of the model which includes the lagged dependent variable as a regressor. Empirical results are as follows. First, the estimated coefficients of the lagged dependent variable are found to be statistically significant, which may reflect a high degree of consumer loyalty or an important effect of 'word of mouth' in determining international tourism demand for Korea. Second, empirical results show that the estimated coefficient of income elasticity of tourism demand to Korea should be positively significant, supporting the results of the previous studies. Third, the cost of tourism to Korea turns out to be statistically significant and thus an important factor in determining tourism demand. Finally, In contrast to theory prediction that foreign exchange rate can have positive effects on tourism demand, however, there is no robust evidence that nominal exchange rate should lead to an increase in tourism demand.
KEYWORDS

Fixed effect model, Random effect model, Tourist's persistence habit, Dynamic panel analysis, System GMM, Literature review
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