Prospect Theory and The Determinant Factors of Nuclear Policy : Comparing North Korea with Libya

Park， Sang Un

doi:10.18013/jnar.2013.28.1.005

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinant factors in North Korea and Libya’s nuclear policy based on the Prospect Theory. I examine what conditions led to North Korea’s nuclear development and Libya’s nuclear renunciation. The analysis reveals that Kim Jung-il had a strong will to push for nuclear development under strict internal control despite the international sanctions. Qaddafi had the will for nuclear development, but believed it was difficult to protect the regime because the international isolation was intensified while internal crisis was getting out of control. In particular, Seeing the Bush administration attack Iraq on the pretext of the elimination of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, He adopt a risk-aversion strategy to escape the collapse of regime as the worst case scenario. On the Other hand, Although Kim Jung-il is in the domain of loss because of ‘terror of war’ strategy in the Bush administration, He play his best cards which alleviate the loss through expanding trade with China and international arms trade. Therefore, North Korea and Libya have the domain of loss in common, but whether nuclear development is continued or not depends on the effect of international sanctions and the keeping stable internal control.

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