Sino-Russian Gas Trade Delay and it’s Background: Focusing on East Siberia PNG

Jeonghwan Kim; Lee Ah Ram

doi:10.18013/jnar.2018.33.1.002

Energy cooperation between Russia and China is one of the oldest theme that has been discussed already several decades ago. Although head of two countries and deputy have signed several document and agreement, no specific step for practical cooperation has yet started. The main problem was price gap between two countries and there are other different opinion regarding loan offering and gas supply route. This study employed Michael Porter’s Five Forces Model in order to examine the reason of delay and conflict between two countries. In addition, this study examined the strategical meaning of Russian natural gas for both countries and northeast Asian market. The analysis showed that China has already secured plenty of potential gas supplier and stable natural gas importing infrastructure, such as Central Asia – China Pipeline and LNG regasification facility in east coast where has huge natural gas demand. On the other hands, Russia is compelled to rely on Chinese financing and purchasing, because no country can import huge volume of natural gas in Northeast Asian market especially PNG. In this state, China can hold a lead in negotiation and persistently seeking for maximizing its own national interest. Once the Power of Siberia will have built in 2019, Russian natural gas would shipped to China. However, there is no guarantee that Russia can sell their planned amount of natural gas to China, considering the fact that China already has plenty of potential gas sources. But the influx of Russian natural gas to Northeast region may intensify the market competition and would bring about natural gas market changes.

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