U.S-China Strategic Competition and Vietnamese Strategy Toward China: From Hedging to Soft Balancing

Wondeuk Cho; Sangsook Lee

doi:10.18013/jnar.2020.35.2.001

This study explains the change in Vietnam’s strategy toward China in response to the change of its threat-perceptions to China, from ‘hedging’ to ‘balancing,’ with regard to a continuous policy spectrum. Vietnam, which has historically been highly aware of China’s threats, severed its relationship with China after the war against China in 1979. But Vietnam normalized its diplomatic relations with China in 1991 due to the Sino-Russian rapprochement after the post-Cold War. It adopted a hedging strategy toward China since the normalization with the US. When Vietnam’s threat perceptions to China has deepened, Vietnam adopted a balancing strategy instead of a hedging. In this case, it considered the economic interdependence with China and Sino-Vietnam power asymmetry, and therefore, selected a soft balancing rather than a hard balancing. Vietnam announced a statement in protest against China’s assertive behaviors and violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty. In addition, Vietnam appeals to international institutions such as the United Nations and international community about China’s illegal activities in order to internationalize the South China Sea disputes, to weaken China’s position and to gain support from other countries. However, As China’s revisionist and offensive military activities in the South China Sea have not been suppressed, but rather increased, Vietnam began to change its strategy to military soft balancing strategy. Above all, Vietnam is strengthening its maritime defense capabilities by increasing its defense and security cooperation with the United States, including joint exercises, military training, and transfer of US patrol boats to Vietnam’s coast guards. At the same time, Vietnam is expanding its military security cooperation US security partners(so-called Quad countries) including Australia, India, and Japan. In this respect, this study analyzes that Vietnam is changing its strategy from hedging strategy to soft balancing, and especially strengthening military soft balancing in addition to non-military soft balancing, reflecting changes in the international political environment and Vietnamese perception of threat to China in the South China Sea.

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