Analysis of Scenarios on the Future of U.S.-China Relations: Focusing on the U.S. Think Tanks’ Foresight Reports in the 2010s

Kang Su-Jeong

doi:10.18107/japs.2020.27.2.001

As the strategic competition between the U.S. and China has begun, the uncertainty in U.S.-China relations has increased, and various discussions among think tanks have been made regarding the prospects on the future of U.S.-China relations. The scenarios on the future of U.S.-China relationship, presented by think tanks, provide a glimpse into how they perceive the current state, change and future of the U.S.-China relationship. In this regard, this study focuses on exploring the U.S. think tanks’ prospects for U.S.-China relations which reflect the U.S. perception and strategic thinking towards its relations with China. This paper aims to identify major trends and changes in the U.S. perception of its relations with China and to find important clues for the future prospects of U.S.-China relations by analyzing the forecast scenarios of U.S.-China relations presented in the foresight reports published by major think tanks in the U.S. in the 2010s. In addition, based on this analysis, this paper also examines the increasing tendency in U.S.-China relations since the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and discusses the future of U.S.-China relations in the post-COVID-19 era.

Citation status

KCI Citation Counts (7)
열림/닫힘 버튼
REFERENCES (56)
열림/닫힘 버튼
* 2021년 이후 발행 논문의 참고문헌은 현재 구축 중입니다.

[journal] 김재철 / 2002 / Hegemony, Multipolarization, and Sino-U.S. Relations:Competition for the New World Order? / 국제정치논총 / 한국국제정치학회 42(4) : 327~345

[book] 이희옥 / 2007 / 중국의 국가 대전략 연구 / 폴리테이아

[book] Allison, Graham / 2017 / Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? / Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

[book] Bitounis, Leah / 2020 / The Struggle for Power:U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century / Aspen Institute

[journal] Brzezinski, Zbigniew / 2005 / Clash of the titans / Foreign Policy (146) : 46~50

[journal] Friedberg, Aaron L. / 2018 / Competing with China / Survival 60(3) : 7~64

[journal] Glaser, Charles L. / 2015 / A U. S. -China Grand Bargain? The Hard Choice between Military Competition and Accommodation / International Security 39(4) : 49~90

[book] Heath, Timothy R. / 2016 / The PLA and China’s Rejuvenation / RAND Corporation

[book] Kang, David C. / 2017 / American Grand Strategy and East Asian Security in the 21st Century / Cambridge University Press

[book] Mazarr, Michael J. / 2018 / China and the International Order / Rand Corporation

[book] Mearsheimer, John J. / 2003 / Tragedy of Great Power Politics / W. W. Norton & Company

[book] Ross, Robert S. / 1999 / Engaging China : The Management of an Emerging Power / Routledge

[report] Rudd, Kevin / 2015 / The Future of U.S.-China Relations Under Xi Jinping:Toward a New Framework of Constructive Realism for a Common Purpose / Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

[journal] Shambaugh, David / 1996 / Containment or Engagement of China? Calculating Beijing’s Responses / International Security 21(2) : 180~209

[book] Swaine, Michael D / 2014 / China’s Military and the U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2030: A Stratigic Net Assessment / Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

[book] Swaine, Michael D / 2015 / Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Strategic Net Assessment / Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

[journal] Weinstein, Kenneth R / 2019 / A New Cold War Between the US and China / ASPEN Review 1 : 11~14

[report] 전재성 / 2012 / 미중관계의 변화와 한국의 미래 외교 과제 / EAI

[book] Defense Intelligence Agency / 2019 / China Military Power : Modernizing a Force to Fight and Win / Defense Intelligence Agency

[report] Gaub, Florence / 2019 / Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe. European Strategy and Policy Analysis System

[other] National Intelligence Council / 2012 / Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

[other] National Intelligence Council / 2017 / Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress

[report] The U. S. Department of Defense / 2019 / Indo-Pacific Strategy Report:Preparedness, Partnerships, and Promoting a Networked Region

[book] The White House / 2017 / National Security Strategy of the United States of America / The White House

[report] The White House / 2018 / National Cyber Strategy of the United States of America / The White House

[report] The White House / 2020 / United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China / The White House

[other] / 2019 / 美국방비, 2020년 역대 최대 근접… ‘미군 활동 확대’ / 뉴스 1

[other] / 2020 / 美-러시아 新군비경쟁 치닫는다… “핵 통제 네트워크 붕괴됐다” / 매일경제

[other] / 2020 / 美·英·佛책임론 압박 속… 메르켈 “中, 코로나 원인 공개해야” / 중앙일보

[other] / 2020 / 미중 1단계 무역합의는 디딤돌… 지속적 협상이 중요 / 한국일보

[other] / 2020 / 美, ‘中책임론’에 동맹국 동참 압박… EU도 ‘국제 조사’ 촉구 / 연합뉴스

[other] / 2020 / 중국 온건파 지식인들, 코로나19에 반미정서 거세지자 자제 촉구 / 연합뉴스

[other] / 2020 / 중국, 호주의 코로나 근원조사 언급에 발끈… ‘경제보복’ 경고 / 연합뉴스

[other] / 2020 / 중러 정상, 美의 코로나19 ‘중국 책임론’ 제기에 공동 대응 / 연합뉴스

[other] / 2020 / 트럼프 “중국 우한 실험실이 발원지”… 코로나관세 부과 검토 / 매일경제

[other] / 2019 / 韓, 글로벌 밸류체인이 美·中으로 양분될 가능성 대비해야 / 한국경제

[other] / 2020 / 화춘잉, 美일각 코로나19 발발 중국 책임론 주장에 “책임 떠넘기지 마라” / 인민망

[other] / 2020 / WHO 총회, 코로나19 대응에 대한 독립적 조사 승인 / 연합뉴스

[other] Bermingham, Finbarr / 2019 / China and US in new ‘cold war’ that is ‘more difficult’ than Soviet-era, says former US Ambassador to China / South China Morning Post

[other] Churchill, Owen / 2020 / Coronavirus: China’s US ambassador Cui Tiankai takes veiled swipe at Donald Trump for politicising outbreak / South China Morning Post

[other] Elmer, Keegan / 2018 / US tells China: we want competition ... but also cooperation / South China Morning Post

[other] Ferguson, Niall / 2019 / The New Cold War? It’s With China, and It Has Already Begun / The New York Times

[journal] Johnson, Keith / 2020 / As If Things Aren’t Bad Enough, Trump Mulls Fresh Trade War With China / Foreign Policy

[journal] Johnson, Keith / 2020 / The Great Decoupling / Foreign Policy

[journal] Kaplan, Robert D. / 2019 / A New Cold War Has Begun / Foreign Policy

[journal] Lague, David / 2020 / Special Report : U. S. rearms to nullify China's missile supremacy / Reuters

[other] Lee, Don / 2020 / Coronavirus pandemic pushes U. S. and China closer to cold war / Los Angeles Times

[other] Magnier, Mark / 2019 / Slip-up or signal? What US official’s ‘clash of civilisations’remarks suggest / South China Morning Post

[other] Rice, Susan E / 2020 / Trump Is Playing the China Card. Who Believes Him? / The New York Times

[other] / 2020 / Phase 1 trade deal stops bleeding, doesn’t end U.S.-China dispute: U.S. Chamber / Reuters

[journal] Cooper III, Cortez A / 2018 / PLA Military Modernization: Drivers, Force Restructuring, and Implications / Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review

[other] Davidson, Philip S.. / 2019 / U.S. Indo-Pacific Command before the Senate Armed Services Committee on U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Posture, Hearing on United States Indo-Pacific Command and United States Forces Korea, Dirksen Senate Office Building

[other] Grossman, Derek / 2019 / Envisioning a “World-Class” PLA Implications for the United States and the Indo-Pacific / Testimony submitted on July 1, 2019, to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission as a statement for the record for the hearing on June 20

[other] Ratner, Ely / 2018 / Rising to the China Challenge / Testimony Before the House Committee on Armed Services United States House of Representatives 2nd Session, 115th Congress

[web] Devlin, Kat / 2020 / U.S. Views of China Incr easingly Negative Amid Coronavirus Outbreak / https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/04/21/u-s-views-of-china-increasingly-negative-amidcoronavirus-outbreak/

[web] Haass, Richard N. / 2019 / The Future of U.S.-China Relations / https://www.cfr.org/event/future-us-china-relations

KJC Korea
Journal Central

Statistics

Tools

Sharing

Issue List

Citation status