Risk of Reverse Mortgages Resulting from Cycles of Housing Prices and Interest Rates

김갑태; 마승렬

Journal of Insurance and Finance

2006, 17(2), pp.61-97
Publisher : Korea Insurance Research Institute
Research Area : Business Management

김갑태 ¹ , 마승렬 ²

¹ 한국주택금융공사
² 한국주택금융공사

ABSTRACT

Because of the long period of reverse mortgage loans, the mean values of housing price growth rates and interest rates which adapted to the model of reverse mortgages could be changed remarkably until the loan period is over. We confirmed the cycles of housing price growth rates and interest rates using several methods of time series analysis and then analyzed the market risk of reverse mortgages. In this analysis, we proposed a method of alleviating market risks resulting from cycles through using the modified values of housing. The result of this analysis shows us that we could alleviate the market risk of reverse mortgages considerably by using the smoothed housing prices on the model of reverse mortgages when we determine the levels of monthly payments.
KEYWORDS

time series of interest rates , cycles , risk of reverse mortgages , housing prices
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KCI Citation (23)

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