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2015, Vol.25, No.4

  • 1.

    A Study of the The Effect of Monetary Policy on Volatility of Real Estate Prices

    최영상 | Sung-soo Koh | 2015, 25(4) | pp.7~19 | number of Cited : 3
    Abstract
    This study focuses on the effect of key monetary policy variables and mortgage credit policy indicator, liquidity-related variables on the real estate price volatility dynamics in korea. For this purpose, the independent variables and the dependent variables were converted to a volatility–related variables. Based on monthly data from January 1998 to August 2013, it demonstrates underlying relation between the real estate market and monetary policy. Empirical result shows that both expansionary monetary policy (declining interest rates, faster money supply growth) and non-mortgage credit policy tends to accelerate the subsequent home price growth rate. however, restrictive monetary policy (rising interest rates, slower money supply growth) and the introduction of mortgage credit policy tends to decelerate the subsequent home price growth rate. Through the results, This study finds that monetary policy factors are the important driving forces behind the change of real estate price growth rate. Furthermore, a bullish stock market related to accelerate subsequent home price growth rate. Finally, hot money flow not have statistically significant effects on the home price growth rate.
  • 2.

    An Analysis on the Determinant Factors of Residential Mobility toSejong City and Residential Satisfaction

    김부성 | Chung, Jae Ho | 2015, 25(4) | pp.21~32 | number of Cited : 14
    Abstract
    Sejong City is a special district where involuntary moves including those of public officials, and voluntary moves for settling down in better residences are realized simultaneously. Citizens residing in Sejong City were set as a parent population for the survey, In order to confirm relationships among the environmental factor, educational factor, economic factor, social/urban infra factor, and cultural factor, which are residence determinants, and their relationships with Sejong City satisfaction, hypotheses were verified by using a structural equation model. As a result, the economic factor, environmental factor, educational factor, and social/urban infra factor turned out to influence Sejong City residential satisfaction, and the educational factor turned out to influence the factors, and all the factors excluding the cultural factor influence Sejong City residential satisfaction. The study results indicate that establishment of infrastructures such as transportation facilities, medical facilities, and neighborhood/commercial facilities should be more promoted than the economic factor such as housing prices. It was analyzed that voluntary movers have higher social/urban infra satisfaction than involuntary movers.
  • 3.

    Estimation of Tenure Choice and Housing Demand Decisionsof Older households in Korea

    Seon-young An | Joo Hyun Cho | 2015, 25(4) | pp.33~48 | number of Cited : 5
    Abstract
    The main purpose of this study is to analyze the housing demand characteristics of older households using housing demand function. For this purpose we classify older households as those persons over 55 years of age, and break this group down further into 3 sub-groups (55-64, 65-74, and 75 years and older). Employing 2010 Korea Housing Survey data, the two-stage Heckit model was estimated and the marginal effects and elasticity of the major explanatory variables are additionally calculated. Estimation results show that the 55-64 and 65-74 household categories show a tendency to reduce their housing size, while the overall probability of home ownership in general, decreases for the 75 years and over household category.
  • 4.

    The Lead-Lag Relationship between Housing PurchasePrice Index and Consumer Sentiment Index

    Yoo, Han-Soo | Chung, Jae Ho | 2015, 25(4) | pp.49~61 | number of Cited : 6
    Abstract
    This paper investigates empirically the lead-lag relationship between Housing Purchase Price Composite Index(hereafter HPPCI) and Consumer Sentiment Index(hereafter CSI). Business survey information reveals expectations of economic agents. Previous studies in this field examine the relationship between the observed housing purchase price index and consumer sentiment index. The distinguishing feature of this study is that it investigates the relationship between the fundamental value of HPPCI and CSI, and the relationship between the transitory value of HPPCI and CSI. The fundamental value and transitory value of HPPCI are estimated by the unobserved component model in this paper. The first step of this study is to decompose observed HPPCI into fundamental value and transitory value by using unobserved component model. The second step is to test for the unit root of each variable by using ADF test. The third step is to investigate the lead-lag relationship between HPPCI and CSI by using Granger causality test. The results show that there are feedback Granger causalities between observed HPPCI and CSI, and between the fundamental value of HPPCI and CSI. On the contrary, there exists unidirectional Granger causality from CSI to the transitory value of HPPCI. Fourth, the impulse response function analysis shows that the shock of observed HPPCI, fundamental value and transitory value generally increases the magnitude of CSI. In sum, the evidence of this study suggests that the movement of HPPCI helps to estimate consumer sentiment of housing market. Therefore, analyzing the housing price is crucial for investment strategy and policy making of housing market.
  • 5.

    A Study of the Prior Application of a Civil Special Laws about Building Lease

    권영수 | Kim, Woong | 2015, 25(4) | pp.63~73 | number of Cited : 0
    Abstract
    There are two special laws for a building in Korea, for residential and commercial use. But it is confusing as to which law should be applied first between those two laws, because the judicial precedents have been based on the substantial relationship rather than its official documents in the application of such special laws. This problem could be confirmed through the case shown in the office building and the judicial precedents. Now I think it makes sense to raise the priority criteria applicable to the combined building by the legislative way. Most of all, ‘legislative settlement’ can be seen as the method for minimization of unneeded argument. Therefore, in the case of both residential and commercial use, it is good to revision of the Law on Commercial Building Lease Protection; applying the Law on Commercial Building Lease Protection first, then applying the Law on Housing Lease Protection only if the residential portion is the tenant’s only residential space. This solution will be get along with previous judicial precedents and reduce the uncertainty. To sum up, such constant efforts are expected to reduce unnecessary dispute and to become a system which reflects the reality better.
  • 6.

    A Study of the Effects of Land Evaluation Gains and Lossesestimated by GALP on Firm Value

    Jong-min Park | 2015, 25(4) | pp.75~90 | number of Cited : 1
    Abstract
    This study has been carried out to analyze whether land evaluation gains and losses estimated on the basis of GALP (government-announced land price) with listed firms would affect firm value, which study would diversify utilization of GALP. For the analysis, 2 portfolios are made up with 30 firms of largest (A portfolio) and smallest (B portfolio) land evaluation gains, then residual errors of individual firms and portfolios are estimated by subtracting expected rate of return from daily rate of return. Analysis results show that difference of daily average of cumulated residuals between portfolio A and B in year 2008 has significantly positive(+) effects on price return after announcement of GALP around end of may. Insignificant results in other years between 2005-2010 excluding 2008, however, may suggest that land evaluation gains and losses would have effected stock price before announcement day in that GALP would be announced every year periodically and stock market surroundings in 2008 when Financial Crisis happened in Korea were worst.