Recently, an issue has been raised that a shortage of housing supply mainly caused the surge in housing prices in the metropolitan area. Therefore, to analyze regional differences, this study divided Korea into Seoul, metropolitan areas, and provinces. In addition, this study analyzes the number of households and housing completed as the factors of demand and supply, respectively. Moreover, economic factors that affect housing prices are determined.
Dependent variables are housing prices, and the independent variables are completed housing, number of households, employees by industry, money supply (M2), and mortgage loan amount. Moreover, ARIMA, GARCH, and BREAKS are the analysis models used in this study.
The findings of this study are as follows. First, ARIMA analysis showed a strong autoregressive effect in all regions. Second, BREAKS analysis showed that new construction and households are significant factors affecting the increase in housing price. Third, in the GARCH analysis, uncertainty and unexpected shock were significant in house price volatility, and the volatility of loan amount and M2 was significant depending on the region. In the case of Seoul and metropolitan areas, manufacturing workers had a negative (-) influence and ICT/finance/health workers had positive (+) influence on housing prices. Results reveal that changes in the number of households, housing supply, and employment affect the housing price. In particular, in terms of employment in Seoul and metropolitan areas, the number of workers in the manufacturing industry has a negative (-) influence on housing price, whereas the amount of information, finance, and the number of health workers has a positive (+) significant influence on the housing price.