This study examines the timing of the boom and bust of bubbles in South Korea’s apartment market by region using the test developed by Phillips et al. (2015a, 2015b). The study also identifies the factors causing housing bubbles using ordinary least squares (OLS) and probit models. The sample covers the period from January 2000 to June 2022, comprising 270 monthly observations. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the generalized sup Augmented Dickey–Fuller test results indicate that housing bubbles partially existed in all five regions. Second, the bubble date stamping shows some differences across regions. Third, OLS results indicate that although housing bubbles are inversely related to the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR), interest rate (IR), and stock index (SI), they are positively associated with the producer price index (PPI), the exchange rate of US dollar to Korean won (ER), and the total amount of interim payment in the construction sector (TIP). Fourth, probit results suggest that the probability of housing bubbles is influenced by PPI, LDR, IR, SI, ER, and TIP in order of magnitude.
@article{ART002910235}, author={Yun, Won Cheol}, title={Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test}, journal={Korea Real Estate Review}, issn={2092-5395}, year={2022}, volume={32}, number={4}, pages={7-20}, doi={10.35136/krer.32.4.1}
TY - JOUR AU - Yun, Won Cheol TI - Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test JO - Korea Real Estate Review PY - 2022 VL - 32 IS - 4 PB - korea real estate research institute SP - 7 EP - 20 SN - 2092-5395 AB - This study examines the timing of the boom and bust of bubbles in South Korea’s apartment market by region using the test developed by Phillips et al. (2015a, 2015b). The study also identifies the factors causing housing bubbles using ordinary least squares (OLS) and probit models. The sample covers the period from January 2000 to June 2022, comprising 270 monthly observations. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the generalized sup Augmented Dickey–Fuller test results indicate that housing bubbles partially existed in all five regions. Second, the bubble date stamping shows some differences across regions. Third, OLS results indicate that although housing bubbles are inversely related to the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR), interest rate (IR), and stock index (SI), they are positively associated with the producer price index (PPI), the exchange rate of US dollar to Korean won (ER), and the total amount of interim payment in the construction sector (TIP). Fourth, probit results suggest that the probability of housing bubbles is influenced by PPI, LDR, IR, SI, ER, and TIP in order of magnitude. KW - Housing Bubbles;PSY Test;Regression Analysis DO - 10.35136/krer.32.4.1 ER -
Yun, Won Cheol. (2022). Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test. Korea Real Estate Review, 32(4), 7-20.
Yun, Won Cheol. 2022, "Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test", Korea Real Estate Review, vol.32, no.4 pp.7-20. Available from: doi:10.35136/krer.32.4.1
Yun, Won Cheol "Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test" Korea Real Estate Review 32.4 pp.7-20 (2022) : 7.
Yun, Won Cheol. Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test. 2022; 32(4), 7-20. Available from: doi:10.35136/krer.32.4.1
Yun, Won Cheol. "Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test" Korea Real Estate Review 32, no.4 (2022) : 7-20.doi: 10.35136/krer.32.4.1
Yun, Won Cheol. Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test. Korea Real Estate Review, 32(4), 7-20. doi: 10.35136/krer.32.4.1
Yun, Won Cheol. Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test. Korea Real Estate Review. 2022; 32(4) 7-20. doi: 10.35136/krer.32.4.1
Yun, Won Cheol. Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test. 2022; 32(4), 7-20. Available from: doi:10.35136/krer.32.4.1
Yun, Won Cheol. "Bubbles in the Apartment Market by Region and Their Causes Based on PSY Test" Korea Real Estate Review 32, no.4 (2022) : 7-20.doi: 10.35136/krer.32.4.1