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2014, Vol.82, No.

  • 1.

    Spillover Effects of Apartment Housing Prices across Cities: A Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Seven Large Cities

    Hangyong Lee | Jin Lee | 2014, 82() | pp.3~15 | number of Cited : 7
    Abstract PDF
    This study examines spillover effects of apartment housing prices across seven large cities in Korea. Unlike the previous studies, we measure total spillover index, directional spillovers, and net spillovers in a systematic and comprehensive way under the generalized forecast error variance decomposition framework which is invariant to the variable ordering. The empirical results show that over 50% of total variability of apartment housing prices are explained by the spillover effects, suggesting that the apartment housing market is fairly interconnected across regions. The subsample results and the rolling regression analysis show that the direction of spillover has changed. In the 1986-1999 sample period, the spillovers from non-capital regions appear to be stronger, while the spillovers within the capital area and the spillovers from capital area to non-capital area have increased since 2000.
  • 2.

    The Comparative Study on the Landscape Attractions of Seoul in Joseon Dynasty: Focusing on the Eight Scenery Poems, True - View Landscape Paintings and Folklore Literatures

    박수지 | Kim, Han-Bai | 이승희 | 2014, 82() | pp.17~35 | number of Cited : 3
    Abstract PDF
    This study aims to figure out the geographical distribution and social cognition of landscape attractions of Seoul in Joseon Dynasty through old cultural media such as ‘Eight Scenery Poems’, ‘True-View Landscape Paintings’ and ‘Folklore Literatures’. In the ‘Eight Scenery Poems’, while the people in earlier period depicted the institutional places with ‘regional representing mode’, people gradually changed their views to Han River with ‘panoramic viewing mode’. In the ‘True-View Landscape Painting’ of the latter period, ‘Eight Sceneries of Jangdong’ and ‘Scenic Beauties of Seoul and its Vicinity’ became the visual evidences of townscapes. While the former depicted the memorial sites of Seoul in the similar manner of ‘the regional mode’, the latter depicted the Han River view in ‘the panoramic mode’. In the ‘Folklore Literatures’ including ‘Hanyangga’, the downtown with marketplaces were introduced as the new lively landscape attractions of Seoul, got more social cognition of the common people finally.
  • 3.

    Estimating the Value of Travel Time for Toll Road Demand Forecast

    Kim Seoljoo | Jung Changyong | Shon Eui-Young and 2other persons | 2014, 82() | pp.37~47 | number of Cited : 4
    Abstract PDF
    In analyzing the travel demand in toll road, it is necessary to convert toll to travel time using the value of travel time, in which the value of time is calculated by Marginal Wage Rate Rule. The value of travel time by Marginal Wage Rate, however, could not completely reflect one’s willingness to pay and could be varied by travel distance, travel purpose and income level. The analysis using identical values can be generated a bias in demand forecasting of toll road. This study estimates the value of travel time by travel distance, travel purpose and income level to improve reliability of demand forecast using Stated Preference data in Umyun Mt. Toll Tunnel. Moreover, it is concluded the value of time in toll road is relatively lower than existing value of time because the existing value of time includes indirect cost of 30% in addition to wage.
  • 4.

    The Linked Movement of House Prices and GDP in the G7 Countries

    Jae-Ho Yoon | Lee,Joo-Hyung | 2014, 82() | pp.49~60 | number of Cited : 2
    Abstract PDF
    In order to determine exactly when the housing bubble burst and to examine the co-movement of housing price and the real growth of output for individual G7 countries (U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan), this study adopted Hamilton’s Markov-switching model (1989). This study found that the housing price for the individual countries showed procyclical movement with the real growth of output during the 1970s, 80s, and 90s and the financial shock in 2008. These findings suggest that the FIML Markov-switching model of Yoon (2006) is very useful for determining the common international business cycle between housing price and the real growth of output in the G7 countries. In addition, extremely large shocks, such as oil shocks, cause procyclical housing price movement with the real growth of output, including the burst housing bubble in 2008.
  • 5.

    A Study on the Prediction of Construction Cost on Redevelopment and Reconstruction Project at the Early Stage

    이진규 | 2014, 82() | pp.61~76 | number of Cited : 0
    Abstract PDF
    Recently, as construction projects have gradually become large-size and complex, uncertain factors have increasing. therefore, it is important to predict and understand about cost at early stage of construction projects which will be provided during construction phase to carry out the projects successfully. Therefore, in this study, the redevelopment and reconstruction project at a reasonable and predictable construction cost, the redevelopment and reconstruction project so that you can influence construction cost and the cost of the material factors, 62 are gathered and entered into the regression analysis. The cost of the construction was to build predictive models using the regression formula. The model developed in this study can estimate construction cost, present the range of construction cost, and judge the appropriateness of the estimated cost. The results can be used as an objective basis in the early Stage, therefore can be effectively used by the customer for budget-related decisions.
  • 6.

    The Construction of Housing Price Indices Using Matching Approach: The Case of Apartments in Daegu

    Jung, Taehun | Kim Byung Jo | Jung Changdo | 2014, 82() | pp.77~95 | number of Cited : 1
    Abstract PDF
    Housing price index using matching approach is introduced to complement the problems of inaccuracy in hedonic price index and omission of data in Repeat Sales price index and this study marks the first attempt to adopt matching approach for regional analysis. Using actual transaction price data of apartments in Daegu, the results indicate that Matched Repeat Sales index follows the similar pattern as KAB (Korea Appraisal Board) index, KB index or Repeat Sales index. While the hedonic index tends to overestimate the housing price, McMillen index tends to underestimate it. The housing price index presented in this study is expected to contribute to providing additional information to predict housing market.
  • 7.

    Estimation of Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness Using Traded Apartment Price Index in Seoul

    Kang Min Ryu | Chang-Moo Lee | 2014, 82() | pp.97~106 | number of Cited : 2
    Abstract PDF
    In many conturies real estate is most valuable aseet. And house price are volatile and real estate exposure is not traded as easy and flexible as stock and bonds. These make houses risky assets. But there are no markets that would allow individuals and institutions to hedge their risks. The establishment of Insurance Commodity linked home price index is likely to hedge away large risk in housing market. Many housing owners can’t hedge their housing risk due to the lack of understanding in real estate derivatives market. We estimate the hedging effects to protect against the housing price changes using home price index. The result indicate that the hedge ratio is estimated almost 1:1 ratio, and hedging effectiveness is about 58%.