A New Interpretation of the Lease Structure of Seoul Apartment Market

임재만

doi:10.15793/kspr.2011.70..002

This paper has analyzed the causes of Cheonse price hike issue in term of home owners' yield maximization. The results are as the followings. First, I exhibit a critique to the previous studies that monthly rent rate and expected price growth rate are the same. There are thresholds that vary by the home owners' preference of the lease contracts type. It is true only if the expected price growth rate is equal to the sum of monthly rents and loan interests. Second, rental income and sales prices, Cheonse prices, monthly rent rates were analyzed as a function of the empirical relationship. Because of tenants' budget constraints, the more expensive sales price, the percentage of the Cheonse price on the sales price is falls. Finally, based on historical data, I determine the probability distribution of sales prices, Cheonse prices, deposits, rent rates, expected price growth. And assuming a given interest rate factors, how potential homeowners, who seek to maximize expected investment yield, would prefer Cheonse contract estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. The percentage of Cheonse contracts appeared to be shrinking depending on the expected price growth rate decrease. Finally, empirical relationship between MR and security deposit is negative and statistically significant.

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* 2021년 이후 발행 논문의 참고문헌은 현재 구축 중입니다.

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