Minimizing Overestimation in the Population Forecast : Practices of 23 Municipalities in Gyeongbuk

KIM, JUN HYUNG

doi:10.15793/kspr.2012.72..008

Overestimation of local population growth may be contributed to the noncompliance to the government planning guidelines. Most municipalities in Gyeongbuk have been reluctant to firstly test its assumption of trend extrapolation; secondly to compare between the results of survival analysis and local population growth; and fianlly to review the relevant case studies of migration patterns. However, the study found that the most critical problem in the population forecast is that the level of compliance does not correspond to the level of accuracy. Given the past population change, this study suggested a couple of the alternative guideline in the population forecast. First, the planners should take account of a historically accepted range of population change and its natural and social changes as a baseline of population analysis. Second, the planners make sure that there is a strongly positive correlation found between natural change and social change in population. Third, population growth, therefore, should be estimated by entailing both natural increase “and” social increase of population. Finally, it is also recommended that the municipalities with population size of 200 thousand or less should prepare a high risk of population decrease.

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