Since government spending is basically affected by policy changes, it is important to pay attention to what factors determine the content of the policy. Especially, Government R&D budget expenditure is an investment for the country’s economic development, and it affects the national competitiveness according to the direction of policy implementation. Therefore, it is very important to understand external environmental changes and reflect them on planning and agenda setting. From a policy-determining factor theory perspective, the purpose of this study is to clarify what are the environmental factors that determine the content of policy in the policy-making process of the government R&D sector based on the incident of Japanese export regulation that occurred in July 2019. To this end, using topic modeling of LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation), one of the big data analysis methods, is used to target the time of policy disruption, that is, the time of disruption showing non-incremental changes, for news articles and government documents. The factors that led were analyzed. Analysis, The environmental factors that led to the fluctuations in government R&D budget expenditure were ‘the president’s policy will,’ ‘the National Assembly’s interest,’ ‘priority of the policy agenda,’ ‘public opinion’, ‘technology independence’, and ‘industrialization’. It was derived as a value. This study aims to overcome the disruption of technology and production through securing source technologies in planning and setting agendas for government R&D support policies, and a major shift in policy paradigm such as reorganizing the industrial ecosystem to respond to the era of the 4th industrial revolution. It is a reminder of the need. This can be expected of policy implications that contribute to improving the efficiency of future-related policy decisions and budget allocation.