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Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Extreme Weather in Yeongsan·Seomjin River Basins based on the Representative Concentration Pathways

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2014, 10(2), pp.177-193
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general

Kim Byung Sik 1 장인기 1 민선홍 1 성장현 2

1강원대학교
2국토교통부 영산강홍수통제소

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study forecasts extreme precipitation events and changes in drought using the projected precipitation and temperature data simulated under(RCPs) scenarios in the IPCC Fifth Report to estimate the impacts of future climate changes on extreme precipitation events and droughts in the Yeongsan and Seomjin River basins. The results obtained by using the generalized extreme-value(GEV) distribution showed that, for extreme precipitation, the variability is increasing between extreme precipitation events in intensity and amount over time and the upper tail of the PDF also grew thicker, suggesting that the occurrence of such events would also increase. For droughts, the SPEI results showed that the severity of droughts would increase more intense toward the end of the 21st century, as would the occurrence of droughts with a drought index of-1 or below.

Citation status

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