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Applicability Evaluation of RCP Climate Change Scenarios in the Complex Coastal Regions

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2014, 10(2), pp.215-230
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general

박효선 1 Choi Gye Woon 1

1인천대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

RCP scenarios which are the prediction of the greenhouse gas concentration were applied in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report(AR5) followed by SRES scenarios of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. This research evaluates the applicability of daily precipitation by new RCP scenarios from KMA. The last 40 years observed precipitation data from Incheon weather station and Ganghwa weather station are also analyzed. Afterwards, climate change scenarios' of predicted precipitation data were compared with the observed precipitation data. In order to examine the characteristics of summer precipitation change, we compared last 40 years observed precipitation data and the future 40 years data which is measured from 2011 to 2050yr. Observed and simulated precipitation data at Ganghwa weather station show a similar increasing trend. Simulation data of Incheon weather station show lower simulated results in comparison with the current observed data. Also, in order to consider short-term maximum rainfall characteristics, we analyze annual maximum daily precipitation of RCP scenarios. Some predicted values are higher than the current value of the annual total precipitation data. In addition, sea and land boundaries present a complicated topology, so it is difficult to build climate change data and to apply utilization of resources. Therefore, Solutions to the uncertain boundary were presented in this study. And there need to be done changes by modifying some elements in order to avoid some of the future consequences and apply them in various water-related business which are willing to suggest the correct information.

Citation status

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