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Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Long Term Runoff in the Young San River Based on the RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2014, 10(2), pp.289-305
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general

Se Jin Jeung 1,  Kim Byung Sik 1,  Kye-Won Jun 1,  Choi,Jong-In 1

1강원대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Many climate change studies expected occurrence possibility of extreme high temperature, increase in heavy rain events and strong typhoon in near future. Currently, climate change scenarios have used to prepared appropriate plan for these phenomena under climate change. The main purpose of this paper is to suggest and evaluate an operational method of assessing the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic components and water resources at the regional scale. Future runoff was simulated using high resolution RCM(12.5㎞x12.5㎞) RCP 8.5 scenario which is operated by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) and semi-distribution model, SLURP. The study area was applied to the Young San River including nine dams. It was found that runoff characteristics, especially annual distribution, can be changed. The discharge in July tends to be decreased while the runoff can be increased in August and September. The flow duration curve was estimated and compared from observation data and simulated daily runoff data for Naju site to evaluate climate change effect. The analysis of the duration flow curve was shown that the mean of averaged low flow was increased while the averaged wet and normal flow were decreased under climate change scenario.

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