Exploring Scenarios of Future Catastrophic Disaster Prediction - Focusing on Storm and Flood - (미래 초대형 중대재난 예측 시나리오 탐색 연구 - 풍수해 재난 사례를 중심으로 -)

Joon-Young Hur (허준영); JuHo Lee (이주호)

doi:10.14251/crisisonomy.2018.14.6.29

Exploring Scenarios of Future Catastrophic Disaster Prediction - Focusing on Storm and Flood -

Crisisonomy
Abbr : KRCEM
2018, 14(6), pp.29-40
DOI : 10.14251/crisisonomy.2018.14.6.29
Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general
Received : May 22, 2018
Accepted : June 29, 2018
Published : June 30, 2018

Joon-Young Hur ¹, JuHo Lee ²

¹한국행정연구원
²세한대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to provide the basic data for the development of the method catastrophic disaster prediction using a foresight research method widely used in the field of disaster and safety management. Considering a new and changing disaster environment, we used the environmental scanning and Delphi methods to predict future disasters. Based on the selection logic during the response processes, keywords were drawn out to create scenarios for a catastrophic storm and flood and presented to the respondents in the form of scenarios. According to the Delphi, future catastrophic disasters are differentiated from the existing normal-scale disasters in terms of response capacity, extent of damage, scale of damage, and social (psychological) damage. Future catastrophic disasters selected by this study include the epidemic as a social disaster, storm and flood as a natural disaster, and nuclear accident as a man-made disaster.

KEYWORDS

catastrophic disasters, future forecasting, environmental scanning, Delphi, scenario, disaster management systems

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

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Crisisonomy 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.64

Exploring Scenarios of Future Catastrophic Disaster Prediction - Focusing on Storm and Flood -

ABSTRACT

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Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

Crisisonomy 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.64

Exploring Scenarios of Future Catastrophic Disaster Prediction - Focusing on Storm and Flood -

ABSTRACT

KEYWORDS

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REFERENCES (22) * References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

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* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.