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An Estimation of the Design Flood based on the 2017 Mushim River Flood in Cheongju

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2018, 14(6), pp.103-115
  • DOI : 10.14251/crisisonomy.2018.14.6.103
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general
  • Received : December 18, 2017
  • Accepted : June 15, 2018
  • Published : June 30, 2018

Chang HyungJoon 1 Ho-Jin Lee 1 Myung Gyu Hwang 1 Ho Kwon Cheon 2 Lee, Hyosang 1

1충북대학교
2Isan Corporation

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study aims to evaluate the effect of the 2017 flood on design flood estimation at Mushim River in Cheongju. The design floods were estimated in two cases (CASE 1 and CASE 2) and compared to each other using hydrological data from 1967 to 2016 and 1967 to 2017, respectively. The FARD model was used to estimate the probable rainfall, and the HEC-HMS model was calibrated based on 15 flood events. All calibrated parameter sets were applied to the two cases to estimate the design flood. The range of the design flood was estimated from 364.9 to 1,231.6 m3/s for Case 1, while from 431.0 to 1,455.0 m3/s for CASE 2. The finding that the design flood of CASE 2 was approximately 18% greater than that of CASE 1 indicates that the flood event on July 16th, 2017 increased the design flood in this river by 66.1 ~ 412.4 m3/s. The observed peak discharge on July 16th 2017 (1,028.5 m3/s) was below the current target design flood (1,355 m3/s) but the maximum estimated design flood in CASE 2 was greater than the current target, which confirmed an increase of flood risk.

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