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Evaluation of Future Water Supply Variation in River Unit Basin by Climate Change

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2019, 15(5), pp.57-69
  • DOI : 10.14251/crisisonomy.2019.15.5.57
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general
  • Received : March 3, 2019
  • Accepted : March 25, 2019
  • Published : May 31, 2019

Yong Hyeon Gwon 1 Gye Woon Choi 2 Byoung-JOO lee 1

1(주)헥코리아
2인천대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Recently, Flood and drought occurs more frequently throughout the world due to an unusual exchange in the climate. As a result of repeated drought situations, studies on changes in water supply in the future depending on climate change impacts, and a water balance analysis model for improving accuracy by analyzing them, are continuously being developed. Therefore, in this study, the TANK model based water supply analysis was conducted to identify the future water supply change in the Sapgyocheon upper stream area by using the meteorological data in the RCP 8.5 scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. As a result of analyzing the annual average water supply capacity change rate for the future period, average annual potential supply, supply and surplus supply over the reference period tended to increase S1, decrease S2, and increase S3, while deficiency tended to decrease S1, increase S2 and decrease S3. Demand for S1, S2 and S3 has been shown to decrease. Based on the results of this study, it is expected to be used to predict damages and identify water supply and demand for future droughts by river basin.

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