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Procurements (Purchase or R&D) for Ballistic Missile Defense Systems: Focusing on THAAD, SM-3, and L-SAM

  • Journal of Advances in Military Studies
  • Abbr : AdvMil
  • 2018, 1(1), pp.1~17
  • DOI : 10.37944/jams.v1i1.7
  • Publisher : Institute of Defense Acquisition Program
  • Research Area : Social Science > Military Science > Other Military Science
  • Received : July 30, 2018
  • Accepted : September 2, 2018
  • Published : September 10, 2018

Park, Hyuk-Ki 1 Jinho Lee 2

1해군작전사령부
2해군사관학교

ABSTRACT

We perform cost analysis for evaluating alternatives to effectively defend the threat of North Korean ballistic missiles. As alternatives, THMD, SM-3, and L-SAM are considered, and we analyze the factors affecting to the cost of acquiring alternatives depending on the way to procure them, e.g., by purchasing, or research & development (R&D). Assuming that each alternative can be operated for 30 years, the total cost, which consists of acquiring cost, operation/maintenance cost, and R&D cost, is compared using net present value. Furthermore, we perform sensitivity analysis for maintenance rate, terrain cost and increase rate of R&D cost that involve uncertainty for the future. Cost analysis results show that THMD incurs the highest cost and SM-3 is the most economic alternative. However, sensitivity analysis shows that priority can be changed depending on uncertainty parameters. Although our results do not directly support decision-making on the best alternative due to its various uncertainties, these can provide a guideline on economic evaluation required for public policy decision-making process, especially under the situation that all the three alternatives cannot be acquired at the same time due to the limitation of defense budget.

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