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Estimation of the Appropriate Social Discount Rate of Public Transportation Investment Projects

Byung-Rok Song 1,  Dong-Jin Kang 2,  Cheong-Hyun Rho 3

1(주)코리아인프라스트럭쳐
2한양대학교 대학원 도시공학과
3한양대학교

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ABSTRACT

This study is the following one of the Song's research(2001) and the purpose of this study is to estimate the social discount rate that can be used in the economic feasibility study of the public transportation investment projects, considering the latest change in Korean economic environments. This study investigated various theories and arguments regarding the social discount rate firstly, and estimated the Korean social discount rate using Burgess' model which had been used in Song's research(2001) to estimate the social discount rate of roads, railroads, ports, etc. Especially, Burgess' model is said that it can consider the characteristics of the public transportation investment projects having the supplementary relationship on the private sector's productivity. To estimate the social discount rate by applying Burgess' model, the various Korean macro-economic data during the period of 1981~2007 year was collected. But the sudden fall of the Korean real market interest rate during the period of 2001~2007 year distorted the result of applying Burgess' model. So in the case of the period of 2001~2007 year, the real market interest rate and the estimated one were considered together to apply Burgess' model. By appling these methods, the appropriate social discount rate of transportation investment projects in Korea was proposed in the range of 5.0%~5.5%(in real value).

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