KJCKorea
Journal Central

This study analyzed the factors affecting default using the Korea Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation's jeonse deposit return guarantee data. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the factors affecting default on the return of jeonse deposits were the amount of jeonse deposits, debt ratio, apartment status, multiple homeowners, tenant jeonse loan status, tenant age, and homeowner age. The debt to equity ratio was identified as a variable supporting the equity capital hypothesis. As the amount of jeonse deposits and the debt ratio increased, the likelihood of default also increased. Apartments showed a lower default rate compared to non apartment housing types. Default was found to increase among multiple homeowners. When the tenant had a jeonse loan, and as both tenant and homeowner age increased, the likelihood of default decreased. Corporate ownership and the rate of change in jeonse prices were not statistically significant. An analysis subdividing the number of houses revealed that the variables influencing default on jeonse deposit return guarantees became more detailed. In particular, when tenants had a jeonse loan, default decreased in cases with one or two guarantees but increased when there were three or more. In the model segmented by the number of guarantees, the corporate owner and the rate of change in jeonse prices were found to be significant variables. When the number of guarantees held by multiple homeowners was limited to fewer than 10, a decrease in homeowner default was confirmed.

This study aims to develop indices that quantitatively measure commercial vitality and business diversity while demonstrating their applicability. Current revitalization programs in Seoul choose target areas primarily based on store counts, without reflecting concrete commercial district characteristics. To address this issue, commercial vitality and business diversity indices were developed using data from 2019 to 2023. The portfolio analysis and Markov chain analysis are conducted to classify commercial districts, identify their characteristics, and examine change patterns of commercial district. The results categorize districts in need of revitalization into three types: ‘stable’, ‘declining in diversity’, ‘declining in vitality’, and provide appropriate strategies for each type. In addition, projections indicate that 42% of commercial districts will require revitalization if current trends persist, emphasizing the necessity of revitalization policies. These findings provide a data-driven foundation for precisely identifying commercial districts requiring revitalization support.

The taxpayer of property tax depends on when the completion of the housing transaction was made before and after the tax base date of property tax. Focusing on these characteristics, this study constructed a theoretical model and empirically analyzed changes in housing sales volume before and after the tax base date from the perspective of tax burden transfer. The main achievements of the study are as follows. First, a theoretical model was established for the pattern of housing transactions before and after the property tax base date using the Nash negotiation model from the perspective of tax transfer. Second, the theoretical model was proved by empirically revealing the threshold effect that the transaction volume was small before the tax base date and the transaction volume increased after the tax base date. Third, as the property tax was strengthened, the fluctuations in transaction volume before and after the tax base date intensified. It can be interpreted that the temporary market distortion has intensified due to the transfer of property tax.