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Establishing O/D Matrices by Time and by Direction to Improve Demand Forecasting Reliability Through

Park Ohsung 1,  Shon Eui-Young 2,  Jeongbok Yu 3

1서울시립대학교 교통공학과
2서울시립대학교
3한국교통연구원

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ABSTRACT

Inbound and outbound traffic volume in Seoul is quite different by time and by direction. The difference is so conspicuous in tolled Umyeonsan tunnel that the inbound traffic volume is higher than the outbound one during 16 hours in a day. Inbound car users are willing to pay toll fee to save travel time, while outbound car users are reluctant to pay toll fee because the need to save travel time is not big enough and other neighboring roads are not so congested. The traffic volume by direction in tolled roads depends not only upon trip purpose but also upon congestion in neighboring roads so that it is necessary to consider these road characteristics, when assigning O/D and forecasting traffic volume in roads. In reality, however, it is mostly to use peak and off-peak O/D, which is established from one-day O/D and its traffic volume proportion in those time periods. So the peak and off-peak O/D do not reflect the difference between produced and attracted trips in most zones in those time periods. This study suggests that the combined O/D, which reflects the difference between produced and attracted linked trips of each zone in most zones, should be used to forecast traffic volume by direction in Seoul. When the combined unlinked and linked O/D is established and used to forecast the traffic volume in Umyeonsan tunnel and neighboring roads, its forecasting reliability could be much improved.

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