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A Preliminary Study on the Cooperative Multi-ministry Decision on the Integrated Drought Warning Alert Stage Using Rule-based Hybrid Techniques

Jongso Lee 1,  Lee Sangeun 1

1국토연구원

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ABSTRACT

Since 2016, Korean governments agencies including the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Environment, and Korea Meteorological Administration have operated drought warning systems in coordination with the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. Despite multi-ministerial efforts, the ministries designate and announce various drought stages by using their individual views and methods so that municipalities and citizens are largely confused when they try to understand the severity of current and future droughts. This study suggests a novel method for integrating drought stages from three ministries into a single stage at each municipality level. The method follows three steps in order to determine the integrated drought warning stage. First, municipalities are classified into three types on legal grounds, which are intended to differentiate municipalities’ vulnerability to drought. Second, expert interviews and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method are used to quantify the weights of three drought stages for each type of municipality. Third, three drought stage records and estimated weights are applied to determine the integrated drought warning stage for municipalities across the country. The case with the drought in June 2022 shows that proposed methods can describe drought severity in terms of a single yardstick which is useful to communicate with the general public and local government officials, reflecting regional vulnerability characteristics in a simplified manner.

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