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Investigating the Short-term Effects of Housing Demand Regulation Policies on Housing Prices: A Case of Seoul during the Overheated Housing Market Period

Bae, Jin Hee 1,  Lee Jae-Su 2

1기타기관
2강원대학교

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ABSTRACT

This study intends to examine the short-term effects of demand regulation policies on housing markets of Seoul and the Southeastern and Northeastern subregions during the overheated housing market period. Using a regression discontinuity model, it was found that the December 16th policy in 2019 decreased the prices of both houses under KRW 900 million and houses over KRW 900 million in Seoul, but the effect was larger on the latter than on the former. In the Southeastern subregion, the effect was not significant regardless of the group of housing prices. In the Northeastern subregion, however, the effect was only significant for houses under KRW 900 million. After a certain period of the implementation of the December 16th policy in 2019, the short-term effect decreased. The June 17th policy in 2020 did not show a significant price drop in most models. This study indicates that the short-term effects and duration of demand regulation policies may vary depending on the characteristics of submarkets in Seoul and both the Southeastern and Northeastern subregions. This study suggests that it is necessary to establish sophisticated regulatory policies based on a detailed understanding of the characteristics and changes of housing submarket

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