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Relative Dynamic Paths of Apartment Sale Prices after Deregulation of Speculative Control Zones in Seoul: Comparing Gangnam and Non-Gangnam Areas

Seo Jeonghyo 1,  Byeon, Chang heum 1,  Choi, Jinho 1

1세종대학교

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ABSTRACT

This study examines the relative price dynamics of apartment prices in Seoul following the January 2023 deregulation of speculative control zone designations across 21 non-Gangnam districts, while considering the Special Bogeumjari Loan as part of the contemporaneous policy-finance environment. Using district-level monthly panel data, the study applies difference-in-differences and event-study models to examine both the average relative change and its dynamic adjustment paths. The results show that deregulation did not lead to a relative price increase in non-Gangnam areas. Instead, non-Gangnam districts followed a weaker relative price path than Gangnam, with the gap gradually widening over time. The results of pre-trend and placebo tests suggest limitations in interpreting the estimates as the isolated policy effect of deregulation. The findings suggest that Seoul’s post-deregulation housing market should be understood as a differentiated adjustment process shaped by overlapping policy measures, policy-finance conditions, and submarket structure.

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