@article{ART003258003},
author={Sunjae Kim},
title={Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation},
journal={Analyses & Alternatives},
issn={2508-822X},
year={2025},
volume={9},
number={3},
pages={27-47},
doi={10.22931/aanda.2025.9.3.002}
TY - JOUR
AU - Sunjae Kim
TI - Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation
JO - Analyses & Alternatives
PY - 2025
VL - 9
IS - 3
PB - Korea Consensus Institute
SP - 27
EP - 47
SN - 2508-822X
AB - This paper analyzes and forecasts the future trajectory of China-Russia relations, widely considered a de facto quasi-alliance, amidst the rapidly changing international environment following a potential second Trump administration. It employs Kenneth Waltz's Levels of Analysis framework to deeply examine the fundamental driving forces (systemic, state, and individual levels) behind this relationship. The study's main argument posits that the 'Reverse Kissinger Strategy'—a Trump administration attempt to weaken the strategic alignment between China and Russia by improving ties with Russia—is highly likely to fail. This is because the structural factors and mutual interests binding the two nations, particularly their shared perception of the threat posed by the U.S.-led international order, remain potent. Rather than weakening, China-Russia strategic cooperation is likely to deepen in several specific areas, including counterbalancing the U.S. through the establishment of a multipolar order; enhanced communication linking the Ukraine and Taiwan issues; deepened military cooperation; and substantive improvement in economic and trade sectors, such as energy. Furthermore, the possibility of a trilateral alignment among North Korea, China, and Russia is also raised. The ongoing and deepening rapprochement between China and Russia, despite changes in U.S. domestic variables and foreign policy, carries significant implications for the reorganization of the international order, the strengthening of bloc confrontation, and the security environment in Northeast Asia, including the Korean Peninsula.
KW - China-Russia Relations;Reverse Kissinger Strategy;Structural Realism;Level of Analysis;US-China-Russia Triangle
DO - 10.22931/aanda.2025.9.3.002
ER -
Sunjae Kim. (2025). Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation. Analyses & Alternatives, 9(3), 27-47.
Sunjae Kim. 2025, "Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation", Analyses & Alternatives, vol.9, no.3 pp.27-47. Available from: doi:10.22931/aanda.2025.9.3.002
Sunjae Kim "Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation" Analyses & Alternatives 9.3 pp.27-47 (2025) : 27.
Sunjae Kim. Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation. 2025; 9(3), 27-47. Available from: doi:10.22931/aanda.2025.9.3.002
Sunjae Kim. "Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation" Analyses & Alternatives 9, no.3 (2025) : 27-47.doi: 10.22931/aanda.2025.9.3.002
Sunjae Kim. Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation. Analyses & Alternatives, 9(3), 27-47. doi: 10.22931/aanda.2025.9.3.002
Sunjae Kim. Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation. Analyses & Alternatives. 2025; 9(3) 27-47. doi: 10.22931/aanda.2025.9.3.002
Sunjae Kim. Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation. 2025; 9(3), 27-47. Available from: doi:10.22931/aanda.2025.9.3.002
Sunjae Kim. "Reverse Kissinger? An Analysis of Sino-Russian Relations during Trump's second term: Directions and Prospects for Cooperation" Analyses & Alternatives 9, no.3 (2025) : 27-47.doi: 10.22931/aanda.2025.9.3.002
