KJCKorea
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This article presents an alternative model for analyzing changes in international relations. At the same time, to verify the validity of this model, it is applied to the cases of US-China relations during the Xi Jinping administration and the first Trump and Biden administrations, the two most important countries in international relations. The name of the model presented in this paper is the elite variable-centered, dynamic international relations analysis model. This model has two main features. First, it focuses on elite variables as a key factor in changes in international relations. Second, the results of the analysis are open, not closed. In theory, this model can be said to be an organic combination of a four-dimensional elite typology, a policy typology linked to it, and a morphogenetic international relations analysis framework. A more detailed discussion of this is mainly covered in Chapter 2 of this article. Based on this theoretical discussion, this paper verifies the validity of this model in Chapter 3. Specifically, it compares and analyzes the bilateral relations during the first Trump and Biden administrations in the US and the second and third terms of Xi Jinping in China from early 2017 to early 2025. This case study is believed to be able to verify the validity of the elite variable-centered, dynamic international relations analysis model by explaining the dynamics of changes in the relationship between the two countries during this period. In conclusion, we summarize this paper, derive implications such as achievements and limitations, and formalize future research tasks based on them.

This paper analyzes and forecasts the future trajectory of China-Russia relations, widely considered a de facto quasi-alliance, amidst the rapidly changing international environment following a potential second Trump administration. It employs Kenneth Waltz's Levels of Analysis framework to deeply examine the fundamental driving forces (systemic, state, and individual levels) behind this relationship. The study's main argument posits that the 'Reverse Kissinger Strategy'—a Trump administration attempt to weaken the strategic alignment between China and Russia by improving ties with Russia—is highly likely to fail. This is because the structural factors and mutual interests binding the two nations, particularly their shared perception of the threat posed by the U.S.-led international order, remain potent. Rather than weakening, China-Russia strategic cooperation is likely to deepen in several specific areas, including counterbalancing the U.S. through the establishment of a multipolar order; enhanced communication linking the Ukraine and Taiwan issues; deepened military cooperation; and substantive improvement in economic and trade sectors, such as energy. Furthermore, the possibility of a trilateral alignment among North Korea, China, and Russia is also raised. The ongoing and deepening rapprochement between China and Russia, despite changes in U.S. domestic variables and foreign policy, carries significant implications for the reorganization of the international order, the strengthening of bloc confrontation, and the security environment in Northeast Asia, including the Korean Peninsula.

This study examines the changes in job search channels of the elderly over the past decade, extracting the sample of the elderly aged 55-79 with job search experience from the 2014 and 2024 Economically Active Population Survey Elderly Supplements. Among the various job search channels, the use of employment centers, public or private job placement agencies or mass media such as newspapers, magazines and the internet increases, while the use of direct inquiries to businesses or private networks such as friends and relatives decreases. The results of the multinomial logit analysis of job search channels show that in both years, the use of public job placement agencies increases with age and that of mass media decreases. Education is also an important factor, and it is confirmed that the use of employment centers or mass media is prevalent among the elderly with high school or college degrees. It is notable that the use of public job placement agencies or mass media increases among women over time. The results of decomposition analysis by each job search channel show that the effect explained by the changes in the average characteristics of the elderly, such as age and education, is less than half of the total changes in most channels. These results imply that the changes in the labor market environment over the past decade are also crucial along with those in the characteristics of the elderly.