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The Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Carbon Intensity

  • Analyses & Alternatives
  • Abbr : A&A
  • 2026, 10(1), pp.315~346
  • DOI : 10.22931/aanda.2026.10.1.012
  • Publisher : Korea Consensus Institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Social Science in general
  • Received : January 12, 2026
  • Accepted : February 12, 2026
  • Published : February 28, 2026

PARK SHINAE 1,  Lee Dong Jin 2

1상명대학교 디앤에이 랩
2상명대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This paper estimates the impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) on corporate carbon intensity using KOSPI 200 listed firms. A CPU index was constructed using domestic news articles, and empirical analysis was conducted with a fixed-effects model on 119 firms with confirmed greenhouse gas emissions data from 2011 to 2024. The results show that CPU generally reduces firms carbon intensity, with a more pronounced effect in manufacturing firms. For non-manufacturing firms, a significant effect was observed only during 2020–2024, when CPU exhibited a clear upward trend. Among manufacturing firms, the carbon-intensity-reducing effect of CPU was relatively attenuated for high-carbon emitters compared with low-carbon emitters. This suggests process-related constraints on low-carbon transitions through production method changes and facility replacements for high-carbon emitters. This study empirically demonstrates the heterogeneous effects of CPU on carbon intensity by industry and firm characteristics, extending prior research. Policy-wise, it implies the need to enhance policy predictability alongside fiscal and technological support to mitigate uncertainty and induce substantive carbon reduction investments.

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