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Analysis of Risk Factors for Mountainous Disasters Using a likelihood Ratio

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2012, 8(5), pp.203-212
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general

Oh ChaeYeon 1,  Jun Kye Won 2

1강원대학교 방재전문대학원
2강원대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Recently, typhoons and regional torrential rains frequently occur leading to a large-scaled landslides or avalanche disasters, further causing lots of casualties and material loss. To minimize damages made by landslides or debris flows, it is necessary to conduct scientific analyses on possible damage-risk areas, requiring a variety of space information. In this thesis, a database was established with GIS (Geographic Information System) about topography, hydrologic, soil and forest physiognomy needed for analyses, and by targeting the area around Inje Gu, Inje Eup, where many landslides and debris flows occurred in 2006, this study extracted landslide and debris flow-occurrence locations through aerial images and on-site monitoring. Particularly, this study quantitatively extracted the correlationship between the space information and landslide and debris flow-occurrence areas by using the likelihood ratio, while drawing up a prediction diagram of landslide and debris flow risk areas. Through analytically comparing this result with other quantitative models, it is expected to draw up a more accurate prediction diagram in the near future.

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