Economic Impact Analysis of Natural Disasters - Using Recursive Dynamic Global Computable General Equilibrium Model - (자연재해의 경제적 파급효과 분석- 축차동태 글로벌 연산가능일반균형 모형의 활용 -)

Hong, Jong Ho (홍종호); Yong-Gun Kim (김용건); Miyeon Lee (이미연)

Economic Impact Analysis of Natural Disasters - Using Recursive Dynamic Global Computable General Equilibrium Model -

Crisisonomy
Abbr : KRCEM
2014, 10(11), pp.119-141
Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general

Hong, Jong Ho ¹, Yong-Gun Kim ², Miyeon Lee ¹

¹서울대학교
²한국환경정책·평가연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study analyzes economic impact of natural disasters in Korea and eight regions of the world using KEI-Linkages model, a recursive dynamic Global Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) model. Results show that the most affected regions are East Asia and the Pacific, while Europe and Central Asia are the least affected. Applying 100, 200, 250-year flood frequency scenarios in Korea show that GDP will decline by 0.16% ~ 0.1%, and it will not likely to return to the BAU level by 2050. Production in ‘Coal·Gas·Minerals’ and ‘Dwellings’ sectors decline the most, and the former shows rather a long period of stagnation. This is the first study of its kind in Korea using a recursive dynamic CGE model to analyze economic impacts of natural disasters, whose results can contribute to developing an economic risk management strategy for climate change adaptation.

KEYWORDS

recursive dynamic CGE model, natural disaster, economic impact, climate changesafety right, disadvantaged class, criterion of the acceptable risk level

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

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