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Economic Impact Analysis of Natural Disasters - Using Recursive Dynamic Global Computable General Equilibrium Model -

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2014, 10(11), pp.119-141
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general

Jong Ho Hong 1 Yong-Gun Kim 2 Miyeon Lee 1

1서울대학교
2한국환경정책·평가연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study analyzes economic impact of natural disasters in Korea and eight regions of the world using KEI-Linkages model, a recursive dynamic Global Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) model. Results show that the most affected regions are East Asia and the Pacific, while Europe and Central Asia are the least affected. Applying 100, 200, 250-year flood frequency scenarios in Korea show that GDP will decline by 0.16% ~ 0.1%, and it will not likely to return to the BAU level by 2050. Production in ‘Coal·Gas·Minerals’ and ‘Dwellings’ sectors decline the most, and the former shows rather a long period of stagnation. This is the first study of its kind in Korea using a recursive dynamic CGE model to analyze economic impacts of natural disasters, whose results can contribute to developing an economic risk management strategy for climate change adaptation.

Citation status

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