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Estimating Probable Annual Maximum Daily Streamflow on Climate Change - On the Frequency Analysis -

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2015, 11(5), pp.135-149
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general

김형산 1 Maeng, Seung-jin 1 Hwang, Man Ha 2

1충북대학교
2한국수자원공사 수자원연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

In this study probable annual maximum daily streamflow was computed through the frequency analysis of daily annual maximum flood and then further change in probable annual maximum daily streamflow was analyzed according to the future climate change by applying climate change scenarios. After the extraction of RCP scenarios and new greenhouse gas scenario from the selected meteorological station in the Geum River watershed, daily runoff was simulated by applying the SSARR runoff model. The independent test, homogeneity test and outlier test were conducted after configuring the existing measured annual maximum daily streamflow and annual maximum daily streamflow series calculated by the SSARR model. Results of L-moment ratio diagram and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test showed that among the Gumbel, Generalized extreme value, Generalized logistic, Generalized pareto, Generalized normal and Pearson type 3 distributions, Pearson type 3 distribution was found to be more appropriate compared to other probability distributions. Parameters of the PT3 distribution such as scale, location and shape were estimated by means of the L-moment method and then Probable annual maximum daily streamflow of the target watershed was designed by using the estimated parameters of PT3 distribution. Variation rate was analyzed using climate change scenarios at the major control points of Geum River watershed. The findings of this study are expected to be used as basic data required for the hydraulic structures at Geum River watershed to cope with climate change in the future.

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