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Long-term Natural Flow Prediction Based on RCP Climate Change Scenarios in Geumho River Watershed

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2015, 11(5), pp.151-166
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general

HANNA KIM 1 Lee, Eul-Rae 2 강신욱 2 Choi, Hyun Gu 3

1광주과학기술원
2한국수자원공사 수자원연구원
3K-water 연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Climate change is expected to affect water resource management causing precipitation variation in the future. This study predicts the natural flow variation to manage the streamflow in Geumho river watershed for a long time by climate change. Based on SWAT model which is calibrated by observed inflow data of Imha Dam where artificial factors are excluded and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were applied using HadGEM3-RA model which is one of the RCM(Regional Climate Model). For comparison on natural flow results in relation to climate change, natural flow amounts which is applied SWAT model from 2001 to 2010 was selected as a criteria for comparison. This study shows that natural flow tends to decrease across the Geumho river. Especially, the amount of tributary’s inflow was more decreased than main stream’s inflow. Furthermore, flow tends to increase during the spring season and decrease during the summer season. It will be essential to change the current river and watershed management due to the changed hydrological pattern caused by climate change. Finally, the results of this study can be used as essential data to establish structural/non-structural water management future plan in subwatershed.

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