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Analysis of Probability Rainfall Using Climate Change Scenarios

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2016, 12(2), pp.89-97
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general

김형산 1 Maeng, Seung-jin 1 이승욱 1 최현수 1

1충북대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Hydraulic structures such as dams or levees are facilities that store or discharge water for agricultural use and protect the lives, properties and agricultural lands of people in downstream city during flood and drought conditions. Although it is critical to evaluate maximum daily rainfall data over time for hydrological design, the limited evaluation of the rainfall data has caused repeated flood damage in Korea. In this study, a series of annual maximum daily precipitation were computed on the five selected rainfall stations where reliable long-term rainfall data were available. Then, the L-moment method was used to compute the values of the parameters in the probability distribution which was selected based on the 3-parameter probability distributions. The stochastic rainfall data were then estimated for each frequency and tested by reliability analyses with predetermined probability distribution.

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