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Prediction of Magnitudes and Recurrence Intervals of the Korean Earthquakes Based on the Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude-Frequency Relation

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2017, 13(3), pp.83-92
  • DOI : 10.14251/crisisonomy.2017.13.3.83
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general
  • Received : February 8, 2017
  • Accepted : March 26, 2017
  • Published : March 31, 2017

Jang Suk-hwan 1 Oh Kyoung Doo 2 OHJIHWAN 1 Jo Jun Won 1

1대진대학교
2육군사관학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

In this study, the G-R magnitude-frequency relation was derived using the data of 1,278 earthquakes measured by the Korean Meteorological Agency for 38 years from August 30, 1978 till September 12, 2016 when the Kyongju earthquake of magnitude 5.8 took place. The G-R relation of Log10(ΣN per Year) = 3.45 – 0.82 M (R2 = 0.98) was obtained from a linear regression fitting the earthquake data and then used to calculate the magnitudes of earthquakes for given recurrence intervals. Using this equation, earthquake magnitudes were evaluated for various recurrence intervals and compared with those for the recurrence intervals currently in use. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the effects of future strong shocks on the G-R relation. As the magnitude of earthquake increased, the constants a and b of the G-R relation showed a decreasing tendency along with an increasing variance of the relation.

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