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A Study on Probability of Heavy Snowfall Disaster Using Poisson Distribution

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2017, 13(5), pp.135-151
  • DOI : 10.14251/crisisonomy.2017.13.5.135
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general
  • Received : April 24, 2017
  • Accepted : May 15, 2017
  • Published : May 31, 2017

Kim Geun Young 1 Joo Hyun-Tae 2 Hee-Jae, Kim 1

1강남대학교
2한양대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Heavy snowfall is the second-ranked natural disaster after the typhoon and flood disasters in South Korea, but its frequency and severity vary by regions. Heavy snowfall disasters tend to follow a Poisson distribution due to their discrete occurrence, and thus the distribution has been widely used in the literature for estimating a probability of disaster or accident. The objective of this research is to compute probabilities of heavy snowfall disasters in 252 Si-Gun-Gu’s (primary jurisdictions) by five levels using the Poisson distribution model and to draw maps of the heavy snowfall probabilities. This research identifies eighty-four heavy snowfall disaster cases in South Korea during the period of 1979-2014 based on the annual natural disaster yearbooks and the KMA’s daily new snowfall data. The results from this research could be used to guide regionally-specific policies for disaster mitigation and response.

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