A Study on Probability of Heavy Snowfall Disaster Using Poisson Distribution (포아송 분포를 이용한 대설재난 발생확률에 대한 연구)

Kim Geun Young (김근영); Joo Hyun-Tae (주현태); Hee-Jae, Kim (김희재)

doi:10.14251/crisisonomy.2017.13.5.135

A Study on Probability of Heavy Snowfall Disaster Using Poisson Distribution

Crisisonomy
Abbr : KRCEM
2017, 13(5), pp.135-151
DOI : 10.14251/crisisonomy.2017.13.5.135
Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general
Received : April 24, 2017
Accepted : May 15, 2017
Published : May 31, 2017

Kim Geun Young ¹, Joo Hyun-Tae ², Hee-Jae, Kim ¹

¹강남대학교
²한양대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Heavy snowfall is the second-ranked natural disaster after the typhoon and flood disasters in South Korea, but its frequency and severity vary by regions. Heavy snowfall disasters tend to follow a Poisson distribution due to their discrete occurrence, and thus the distribution has been widely used in the literature for estimating a probability of disaster or accident. The objective of this research is to compute probabilities of heavy snowfall disasters in 252 Si-Gun-Gu’s (primary jurisdictions) by five levels using the Poisson distribution model and to draw maps of the heavy snowfall probabilities. This research identifies eighty-four heavy snowfall disaster cases in South Korea during the period of 1979-2014 based on the annual natural disaster yearbooks and the KMA’s daily new snowfall data. The results from this research could be used to guide regionally-specific policies for disaster mitigation and response.

KEYWORDS

heavy snowfall disaster, poisson distribution, disaster probability, disaster response

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

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A Study on Probability of Heavy Snowfall Disaster Using Poisson Distribution

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* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

Crisisonomy 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.64

A Study on Probability of Heavy Snowfall Disaster Using Poisson Distribution

ABSTRACT

KEYWORDS

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