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Estimation Model for Damage Amounts of Natural Disasters Based on Regression Analysis Using Public Data

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2019, 15(3), pp.55-69
  • DOI : 10.14251/crisisonomy.2019.15.3.55
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general
  • Received : February 11, 2019
  • Accepted : March 6, 2019
  • Published : March 31, 2019

Keun Chae Jeong 1

1충북대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

In this study, we propose a regression model for estimating damage amounts of natural disasters based on the quantitative data provided by public institutions. Based on quantitative data for 225 primary local governments during the years of 2001 to 2014, we define a regression model to have 14 independent variables by applying variable selection methods to the variables from 32 sub-indexes used in Natural Disaster Risk Index(NDRI). For verifying the proposed regression model, we compare the estimates from the model with NDRI, Regional Safety Grades(RSG), and actual amounts of damages from natural disasters. From the analysis results, we can find the regression model give better estimates for the amounts of damages than NDRI and RSG. If we utilize the proposed model, we can estimate the future changes in the amounts of damages using the changes in natural disasters and improve the performance of NDRI using the standard regression coefficients from the regression analysis.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

This paper was written with support from the National Research Foundation of Korea.