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Constructing a Causal Map of Urban Crime Using System Dynamics

  • Crisisonomy
  • Abbr : KRCEM
  • 2020, 16(10), pp.71-81
  • DOI : 10.14251/crisisonomy.2020.16.10.71
  • Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general
  • Received : June 17, 2019
  • Accepted : October 28, 2020
  • Published : October 31, 2020

LEE SEUNG HOON 1,  Ban, Yong-un 1,  Choi, Nam-Hee 2

1충북대학교
2한국교통대학교

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ABSTRACT

With the advances of rapid industrialization and urbanization all over the world, the issue of urban crime has been considered as one of the major problems facing modern society. Most crime research focused on explaining the causes of crime based on a number of theories and assessing the negative effects of crime on society, but had limitations in describing the causal relationship among a cluster of indicators related to crime. Typically, a cross-sectional analysis fails to incorporate time-varying dynamic patterns of urban environments and urban life. This study identified the causes and consequences of urban crime in South Korea by focusing on several major determinants of urban crime suggested by the existing literature. Using system dynamics modeling, we constructed a causal loop map of urban crime which illustrates dynamic urban characteristics and causal mechanisms including various physical (e.g. CCTV), demographic (population density), socioeconomic (poverty) and policy (police resources) factors, along with their joint impacts on crime.

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This paper was written with support from the National Research Foundation of Korea.
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