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Russia's South Caucasus Approach Strategy and the Responses of the Three Caucasus Countries: Focusing on the period after the outbreak of the Ukrainian War

  • The Journal of Northeast Asia Research
  • Abbr : NEA
  • 2026, 41(1), pp.151~182
  • DOI : 10.18013/jnar.2026.41.1.006
  • Publisher : The Institute for Northeast Asia Research
  • Research Area : Social Science > Political Science > International Politics > International Relations / Cooperation
  • Received : December 31, 2025
  • Accepted : February 21, 2026
  • Published : February 28, 2026

kim seun-rae 1

1한국외국어대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Russia considers the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) both a historical sphere of influence and a near-abroad region, and views its stability and security as a core element of its national security. Its primary objective is to prevent Western powers, such as the United States, the European Union (EU), and NATO, from becoming deeply involved in the region's political, military, and economic systems. The three South Caucasus countries, in particular, are navigating an ambiguous and complex path of competition and cooperation between the two major powers, Turkey and Russia. The three South Caucasus countries are navigating an ambiguous and complex path of competition and cooperation, particularly between the two major powers of Turkey and Russia. Their goal is to secure strategic autonomy from Russia through diplomatic flexibility and to establish stability and peace in the region through exchanges and cooperation. Russia's limited resources and attention are being diverted by the war in Ukraine, weakening its military leverage in the South Caucasus. This has led Russia to shift away from its traditional military dominance strategy and instead adopt an adaptive strategy that relies more on economic connectivity (transport corridors), hybrid influence, and a political mediator role.

Citation status

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This paper was written with support from the National Research Foundation of Korea.