@article{ART003373691},
author={한능우 and 김태리 and 박준혁},
title={Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records},
journal={Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management},
issn={1598-1487},
year={2026},
volume={26},
number={3},
pages={159-180},
doi={10.14404/JKSARM.2026.26.3.159}
TY - JOUR
AU - 한능우
AU - 김태리
AU - 박준혁
TI - Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records
JO - Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management
PY - 2026
VL - 26
IS - 3
PB - Korean Society of Archives and Records Management
SP - 159
EP - 180
SN - 1598-1487
AB - This study aims to redefine news—as an official record—and Twitter (now X)—as an informal record—under the shared category of “social record” and verify whether the future can be predicted through records by fusing the two sources to forecast the volume of future news coverage of corporate negative issues already under active reporting. A corpus of 201,811 news articles and 69,490 tweets about 118 companies, spanning May 2024 to October 2025, was analyzed. Negative issues were classified into 14 risk categories, and five contextual features—including responsible party and severity—were extracted using a large language model. An official records model utilizing news data alone was compared against a fusion model incorporating Twitter data, with Twitter’s incremental contribution assessed using a company-level block bootstrap test. News alone reduced prediction error by 24.8% over a simple baseline, and adding Twitter yielded a further significant gain of about 1.4% in relative sMAPE, concentrated in areas rarely covered by the news, such as operational issues and customer complaints, where Twitter filled the gaps of the formal record. Defining “archival silence” as observable gaps in press coverage, the study shows that such gaps can serve as a predictive resource. Although limited to companies with active news coverage, this approach could, with broader samples, help identify poorly documented areas and inform priorities for social documentation and digital preservation.
KW - Social records;Computational archival science;Archival silence;Issue prediction;Large language models
DO - 10.14404/JKSARM.2026.26.3.159
ER -
한능우, 김태리 and 박준혁. (2026). Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records. Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management, 26(3), 159-180.
한능우, 김태리 and 박준혁. 2026, "Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records", Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management, vol.26, no.3 pp.159-180. Available from: doi:10.14404/JKSARM.2026.26.3.159
한능우, 김태리, 박준혁 "Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records" Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management 26.3 pp.159-180 (2026) : 159.
한능우, 김태리, 박준혁. Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records. 2026; 26(3), 159-180. Available from: doi:10.14404/JKSARM.2026.26.3.159
한능우, 김태리 and 박준혁. "Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records" Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management 26, no.3 (2026) : 159-180.doi: 10.14404/JKSARM.2026.26.3.159
한능우; 김태리; 박준혁. Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records. Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management, 26(3), 159-180. doi: 10.14404/JKSARM.2026.26.3.159
한능우; 김태리; 박준혁. Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records. Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management. 2026; 26(3) 159-180. doi: 10.14404/JKSARM.2026.26.3.159
한능우, 김태리, 박준혁. Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records. 2026; 26(3), 159-180. Available from: doi:10.14404/JKSARM.2026.26.3.159
한능우, 김태리 and 박준혁. "Predicting the Volume of News Coverage of Corporate Negative Issues through the Convergence of Formal and Informal Social Records" Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management 26, no.3 (2026) : 159-180.doi: 10.14404/JKSARM.2026.26.3.159
