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Modeling and Prediction of Time Series Data based on Markov Model

  • Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information
  • Abbr : JKSCI
  • 2011, 16(2), pp.225-234
  • Publisher : The Korean Society Of Computer And Information
  • Research Area : Engineering > Computer Science

조영희 1 Gye Sung Lee 1

1단국대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Stock market prices, economic indices, trends and changes of social phenomena, etc. are categorized as time series data. Research on time series data has been prevalent for a while as it could not only lead to valuable representation of data but also provide future trends as well as changes in direction. We take a conventional model based approach, known as Markov chain modeling for the prediction on stock market prices. To improve prediction accuracy, we apply Markov modeling over carefully selected intervals of training data to fit the trend under consideration to the model. Another method we take is to apply clustering to data and build models of the resultant clusters. We confirmed that clustered models are better off in predicting, however, with the loss of prediction rate.

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