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A Test for the Causality between Jobs and Migration

오정일 1,  An Gi-Don 2

1경북대학교
2산업연구원 국가균형발전연구센터 부연구위원

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ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to test the causality between jobs and migration on fifteen Korean cities and rural areas. Using the quarterly data ranged from 1989 to 2006, the standard causality test for time-series data such as co-integration test, Granger causality test, and impulse-response-function test were activated We found that demand-side-approach was more valid than supply-side-approach in Korea. In other words, the hypothesis that people follows jobs becomes true in Korea. Furthermore, the causality pattern was somewhat different by region. While there exists an one-directional causality in big cities, rural areas or small & medium cities have a two-directional causality. In consequence, we argue that rural areas or small & medium cities are actually in vicious-circle characterized as the negative escalation between two variables. The number of jobs decreases at once, it causes out-migration and additional job decrease follows out-migration. Policy implications are summarized as follows: because the ‘balanced regional growth’ policy has the characteristics of the supply-side-approach, it would not be valid. What is worse, the demand policy is more effective than the ‘balanced regional growth’ in big cities.

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