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The Relationship between New Apartment and RedevelopableApartment Prices in Seoul

최성호 1,  이창무 ORD ID 1,  Jungsoo Lee 1

1한양대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Present housing redevelopment policy is based on the idea that housing prices in Gangnam area affect to nearby areas. Therefore, the redevelopment policy aims to stabilize housing prices in Gangnam area and this aim could be accomplished to restrict redevelopment process of the apartment in Gangnam area. However, according previous research, the aim has a serious side effect that short supply could make housing prices to rise in the long term. The underpinning logic of the policy also is not so well interpreted by a theoretical point of view. Moreover, there seems doubtful whether reported price exactly reflects sensitive movements of real transaction price. The purpose of the study, by using real transaction prices, is to analysis whether redevelopable apartment prices are preceding new apartment prices or not. The findings and organization of the study are following. First, the paper reviews literatures and discuss the present belief that redevelopable apartment prices in Gangnam area affect to prices in nearby areas. Second, the relationships among housing prices categorized by region and age are analyzed by Granger’s Causality Test. Based on the results of analysis, the paper proposes that the reconstructible apartment prices are less affecting to the new ones than on the contrary. Third, the paper investigates mutual relationships between real transaction prices and reported prices by Co-integration Test. The results of analysis indicate that they have a long term equilibrium relationship. Based on findings, This study suggests that current reconstruction policy should be reconsidered.

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