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A Study on the Relationship between Honeycomb Cycle Model and the Korea Housing Market

서수복 1,  김재경 2

1목포대학교
2초당대학교

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ABSTRACT

There are increasing cases of housing market forecasting using Honeycomb Cycle Model(HCM). However, HCM has a limitation on forecasting of housing market variating by many factors because that is only based on the relation between housing volume and price. Some researchers have announced to the media the results forecasting the housing market by HCM. As a result, this affects a decision making of market participants. This study investigates whether such a model has abilities to forecast the housing market or not by analyzing time series data of the apartment trading volume and purchase price index, and provides some implications in applying this model to the housing markets. Most existing studies using HCM do not give a confidence in prediction. Also it is difficult to explain that honeycomb cycle exists in the flow of Korea housing market. However, housing market shows the Honeycomb cycle approximately during some time period such as IMF crisis and the global financial crisis during the recession. So HCM can be only applied in some interval estimation.

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