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A Study on the Risk Assessment of Real Estate Investment : Using Monte Carlo Simulation

장영길 1 Lee,Choon-Sup 1

1건국대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

The global financial crisis caused by a collaboration real estate with capital markets and has expanded all over the world. This situation in the real estate finance market is an opportunity to highlight the importance of risk. Increased risk in commercial real estate, because the relationship between macroeconomic. Particularly since the financial crisis caused by the expansion of capital markets, the impact was an increase in risk. Risk factor analysis to quantify risk based on the Monte Carlo Simulation was carried out. Depending on the Loan to Value have risen along with return and risk and fluctuations of the up-phase the yield rising risk decreased down-phase the yield decreases and the risk increases. In Scenario analysis by investors, Our results show that the difference between return and risk is a more business cycle than characteristics real estate and the investor. Thus Business Cycle risk than the individual risks are much more influential in real estate investing. We can calculate the probability of Possibility of investment and loss of principal. Thus we can do Building of risk assessment models were available.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2022 are currently being built.