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Exploring Availability of Real-estate Market Consumer Sentiment Index to Estimate Real-estate Overheating Regions

Choi, Sunyoung 1 Lee Seunghoon 1 Jin, Chan Woo 1 Lee Cheonghun 1

1서울대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study explores availability of real-estate market consumer sentiment index to estimate real-estate overheating regions. We analyze 51 monthly housing trading market consumer sentiment indexes and housing trading volume of 78 administrative districts in Seoul metropolitan area by panel FDL model and LISA. Through these empirical analyses, we draw some findings as follows. First, we verify that housing trading market consumer sentiment has an influence on actual housing transaction immediately. According to the panel FDL model, housing trading market consumer sentiment index has positive effect on period 0 and 1 in Seoul Metropolitan Area. Second, we find out that housing trading market is overheated on certain regions at certain points. By comparing estimated value through model and actual trading volume, 22 administrative districts stand out as overheating regions on March, 2015. In addition, there are spatial clustering patterns in Dongducheon-si(in Gyeonggi-do), Jung-gu(in Seoul) and Ojeong-gu(in Bucheon-si, Gyeoggi-do) as a result of LISA. This study implies that real-estate market consumer sentiment index can be an important factor to conduct a research on the real-estate market. Moreover, this study puts a meaning in regard to figure out the spatio-temporal patterns of overheating regions.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.