2016, Vol.88, No.

The Korea Spatial Planning Review 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 1.2

pISSN : 1229-8638
https://journal.kci.go.kr/krihs

As urban financial problems due to slow growth is highlighted, the importance of growth management policies that address the timing and costs of new development is being emphasized. With such a background, this study aimed to redefine the role of growth management policies of Korea as well as reform it. This study found that ‘shrinkage sprawl’ was becoming increasingly common in Korea and it was putting a strain on municipal finances. However, our policies have limitations in dealing with those changes because they don’t fit together as well as still presuppose sustained growth. Some of the available solutions are as follows. First, we need to improve the methods to measure the phased amount of pre-urban land. Second, we need to prepare integrated guidelines including all our growth management policies. Third, we need to prepare a legal basis for set up an integrated public facilities plan. Finally, we need to provide incentives for businesses that locate within these areas.

This study explores availability of real-estate market consumer sentiment index to estimate real-estate overheating regions. We analyze 51 monthly housing trading market consumer sentiment indexes and housing trading volume of 78 administrative districts in Seoul metropolitan area by panel FDL model and LISA. Through these empirical analyses, we draw some findings as follows. First, we verify that housing trading market consumer sentiment has an influence on actual housing transaction immediately. According to the panel FDL model, housing trading market consumer sentiment index has positive effect on period 0 and 1 in Seoul Metropolitan Area. Second, we find out that housing trading market is overheated on certain regions at certain points. By comparing estimated value through model and actual trading volume, 22 administrative districts stand out as overheating regions on March, 2015. In addition, there are spatial clustering patterns in Dongducheon-si(in Gyeonggi-do), Jung-gu(in Seoul) and Ojeong-gu(in Bucheon-si, Gyeoggi-do) as a result of LISA. This study implies that real-estate market consumer sentiment index can be an important factor to conduct a research on the real-estate market. Moreover, this study puts a meaning in regard to figure out the spatio-temporal patterns of overheating regions.

This study aims to analyze the economic effects of increase in housing transactions using the simultaneous equations model and the input-output analysis. This study was conducted in two stages. First, we estimated the impact of increase in housing transactions on private consumption expenditure and residential building construction investment using the simultaneous equations model(K-MEM’14 model of KRIHS) and then used this result as a change of final demand for input-output analysis. Second, we analyzed the economic effect of increase in housing transactions in the real estate industries, related industries, and other industries using the input-output analysis. We can conclude that net growth of 153 thousands of housing transactions in 2013~2014 causes 2.234 trillion won in private consumption spending and 1.155 trillion won in residential building construction investment. And, these increase of final demand induces production of 6.65 trillion won, the value-added of 2.26 trillion won, the employment of 32.2 thousand people and wages of 1.15 trillion won. Finally, we could confirm that increase in housing transactions entirely contribute to national economy growth including real estate industry and related industry.