본문 바로가기
  • Home

What Threatens the Survival of Cities?: A Structural Understanding of Urban Shrinkage

Koo Hyeongsu 1

1국토연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the structural relationship between the variables related to the causes, phenomena, and results of urban shrinkage in Korea. The results derived from the path model do not significantly deviate from expectations. As young people leave for other regions in search of jobs, the proportion of the elderly increases as overall population decreases. If the population decreases when the size of the city has expanded due to suburbanization or sprawl, the amount of abandoned real estate increases, which leads to an increase in financial expenditures along with aging. In addition, as jobs, population and tax revenues all decrease, the city's financial situation becomes more difficult. However, there are also some meaningful implications. Suburbanization and sprawl have a greater impact on real estate abandonment than population. The results show that suburbanization and sprawl have a greater impact on real estate abandonment than population decline. This suggests that, in order to solve the problem of real estate abandonment, it is important to suppress suburbanization and urban sprawl while increasing population density in urban areas. These are the direct causes of increased fiscal expenditures, so they need more active management. In particular, the results show that the city's financial condition is more influenced by fiscal expenditures than by tax revenues. This shows that efficient execution of budget when demolishing abandoned real estate or providing public services is more important than increasing tax revenue by attracting companies or residents.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.