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Changes to the Future Working Age Population and the Economically Active Population in Declining Populations: Focusing on Si(Cities)

Dongkun YIM 1

1한국교원대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study aims to analyze changes in the demographic landscape at the municipal level, with a specific focus on shifts in the working-age and economically active populations within urban city districts. Despite administrative stability observed in urban divisions post-2000, regional variations have emerged in the diminishing birth rates and an aging population. These demographic changes are intricately linked to concurrent transformations of industrial structures. The primary goal is to comprehensively examine the decline in working-age population within shrinking cities and nuanced transformations in the economically active demographic across diverse regions. This investigative pursuit relies on estimating shifts in both the working-age and economically active populations, conducted at the granularity of city and district levels. The noticeable decrease in the working-age demographic, attributed to diminishing birth rates, manifests universally across all regions. Noteworthy is the proportional increase in elderly individuals within the working-age cohort in locales characterized by more pronounced declines. Expectations align with an aging trajectory for the working-age population in urban districts, potentially mitigated by increased labor force participation among older demographics. These findings provide scholarly insights into the demographic dynamics of shrinking cities. Attention is warranted for locales experiencing increases in total population simultaneously with decreases in the working-age population. Disparities may emerge in the proportion of elderly individuals within the working-age demographic between metropolitan and rural sectors, even amid uniform increases in the working-age population. Furthermore, regions marked by a substantial decline in working-age population may exhibit a heightened concentration of economically active older individuals.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2022 are currently being built.