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The Impact of Economic Growth and Regional Disparity on the Fertility Rate in South Korea

Kim, Taewan 1 Kyungjae Lee 1 Lee, SeongWoo 1

1서울대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

The declining total fertility rate of South Korea has reached a critical level, prompting extensive research into the determinants of fertility decisions. While studies investigating the impact of economic growth on fertility rates are actively being conducted, there is a notable absence of empirical analyses examining the relationship between regional disparities and fertility. The primary objective of this research is to analyze the impacts of economic growth and regional disparities on total fertility rates. Utilizing total fertility rates data from 229 municipal districts and 16 metropolitan areas from 2010 to 2019, spatial panel models and Geographically Weighted Regression models were employed for the analyses. The analysis results of the spatial panel model, focusing on 229 municipal districts, reveal that economic growth exhibits a positive effect on fertility. In addition, the analysis of 16 metropolitan areas indicates that regional disparities in economic development and changes to property values have a negative impact on the total fertility rate. This study underscores the potential role of expanding regional disparities as a contributing factor to worsening low fertility rates, emphasizing the importance of balanced national development in addressing fertility enhancement. Additionally, the research provides insights into policy measures aimed at resolving issues related to low fertility and regional decline.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.